How many points and goals do Hearts need to beat relegation this season?

For the first time in Scotland's top football league, a team will begin the season with a significant points deduction.

With Heart of Midlothian kicking off at St Johnstone on August 3 at a 15 point disadvantage, the league is entering uncharted waters.

How the additional incentive on Gary Locke's young team will affect the shape of the competition is imponderable.

However we can use the previous 13 seasons of statistical evidence to assess what sort of performance Hearts will have to produce between August and May to stand a chance of beating relegation.

Hearts 2008/09
Hearts 2008/09 - 59 points, 40 goals, 37 conceded. © SNS Group

The below analysis relies on assumptions and caveats:

Point totals after deduction would need to be equal to the target amount to achieve the goal, as it can be reasonably inferred that the goal difference would be greater.

The points totals referred to are the target amount to be earned, not including the 15 point deduction.

Gretna's 12th place finish of 2007/08 is counted as 33 points and not their 23 point finish after the deduction of ten, for the purpose of analysing goals scored and conceded.

Performances remain constant post-split, so points totals recorded in the bottom six can exceed those of teams in the top six without statistical penalty.

Hearts 2006/07
Hearts 2006/07 - 61 points, 47 goals, 35 conceded. © SNS Group

Avoiding finishing 12th

The 12 team SPL was introduced in 2000/01, since when the lowest points total by a relegated team is 18 (Livingston 2005/06) and the highest is 37 (Inverness 2008/09).

The average points total of a 12th placed team is 28, meaning Hearts appear likely to require a minimum of 33 points, a worst case scenario of requiring 52 points and needing 43 points to give themselves a statistically likely chance of survival, based on average points totals.

Avoiding finishing 11th

While 11th place and a play-off against the top First Division teams is being targeted as success for the Jam Tarts this campaign, it is worthwhile to assess what would be required for a tenth place finish too.

Second bottom has been held by clubs with an average points haul of 35 since 2001. The highest points total was 41 – crucially the amount gained by St Mirren last season in the only quantifiable campaign without Rangers in the league. The lowest was 32 by Dundee United in 2002/03.

To achieve better than the average 11th place haul Hearts would need 50 points, but require 56 to better last season's total. Historically, the minimum requirement would be 47.

Hearts 2005/06
Hearts 2005/06 - 74 points, 71 goals, 31 conceded. © SNS Group

What standard of season do Hearts require?

So what can the numbers tell us about Hearts prior performances?

Firstly it is important to state that the stats are skewed by the size and quality of squads that the team has had in the past, particularly in the mid-2000s. That cannot be expected of the young and threadbare pool of players turning out at Tynecastle this season.

What we can learn though is a yardstick of what the crop of 2013/14 must aspire to, to achieve their goal of beating the drop.

Hearts' average points total in a 12 team SPL is 56 – the amount needed to beat last year's 11th place. Hearts have achieved that haul, or better, six times – 2002/03, 2003/04, 2005/06, 2006/07, 2008/09 and 2010/11.

But the team's most recent performance – 44 in the season without Rangers – is also their worst ever during the period examined. After the points deduction to take them to 29, it would have relegated them in seven of the past 13 seasons, with them finishing 11th in each other term since 2000/01.

Hearts 2003/04
Hearts 2003/04 - 68 points, 56 goals, 40 conceded. © SNS Group

Hitting the net and keeping it tight at the back

Working on the previous assumption that Hearts need between 33 points to make a play-off, and 56 points to get 10th place and stay up, how many goals scored and how many conceded has that required in the past?

Teams finishing on between 31 and 35 points (33 with a variable of two) have required an average of 32 goals, conceding an average of 67.

Teams finishing on between 54 and 58 points (56 with a variable of two) average 53 goals for and 47 against.

Hearts average 53 goals for and 41 against but in the most recent term scored 40 and conceded 49.

To be in the 56 point ballpark requires a performance in attack and defence akin to those in 2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06, 2007/08 and 2010/11.

Hearts 2002/03
Hearts 2002/03 - 63 points, 57 goals, 51 conceded. © SNS Group

In conclusion

Heart of Midlothian would appear to require earning between 33 and 52 points to finish 11th, and 56 to avoid a play-off.

To be in with a chance of that lowest threshold the team needs 32 goals and to leap out of a potential play-off requires 53 goals.