Whatever penalty Hearts receive will surely just delay the inevitable

THOSE hoping for fresh drama in the Hearts story are likely to be sorely disappointed by what happens at this morning's meeting of the Scottish Premier League board at Hampden.

There has been much talk of this beleaguered, vulnerable club being immediately stripped of 18 points for breaking Financial Fair Play rules, dropping to 12th position and carrying on right through the trapdoor into the first division. Dundee are on tenterhooks about exactly that possibility, desperate to embrace it as the only way to save their own skin. Another common view is that Hearts instead will be hit with a massive points deduction to take effect from the start of next season, all but condemning them to relegation in a year's time. But the SPL board isn't likely to satisfy those hungry for verdicts or headlines today. It will be a surprise if they take any action at all. The SPL cannot act and Hearts cannot be punished for "an insolvency event" which, as far as anyone seems to know, has yet to take place.

At the risk of being consumed by the tedious and complicated quicksand of the Lithuanian legal system, this is where we seem to be with Hearts: someone from their parent company, UBIG, went to the Economic Ministry of Lithuania last Thursday and said that, in their view, UBIG was insolvent.

The Ministry then put UBIG's name on a list to be submitted to the Lithuanian courts – stick with us on this – and at some point soon the court will deliver the official ruling and confirmation of whether or not UBIG really is insolvent. That would seem to be a formality when the matter comes to court, but it's the timing that is crucial to Hearts.

As of last night, sources at both Hearts and the SPL believed that no court hearing has been held so far and, therefore, UBIG will be still trading this morning as the SPL sits to discuss Hearts. Dundee's tiny glimmer of hope is likely to be extinguished by mid-morning.

All the SPL can realistically do is confirm that UBIG has not been declared insolvent and, therefore, as a football governing body there is no decision to make on Hearts. It can stress that if the situation changes – and it's highly likely to, perhaps within days – the board will meet again. These are anxious, uncertain times for Hearts but it's pretty likely that any threat of immediate relegation should disappear today. What the club will then do is ready itself to argue that when UBIG does fall into administration, it will not follow that Hearts have broken the SPL rules and should be punished.

The position from within Tynecastle is that UBIG has given Hearts no financial help for somewhere between 12 to 18 months. Hearts have been free-standing and financially independent of it, they say, and have paid recent tax bills and honoured all commitments to players and all other staff without any assistance from the parent company which owns 79% of its shares. They will say "the elastic has been cut between UBIG and Hearts, don't punish a Scottish club for the failings of a Lithuanian business".

But that isn't a view guaranteed to get much sympathy from the other SPL clubs. Hearts have benefited from UBIG's patronage and backing over the years. UBIG's dough paid the salaries of players who won the Scottish Cup in 2006 and 2012 and delivered high league finishes and even a Champions League qualification place, all of it at the expense of rival clubs who could not compete with their wage bill.

The SPL is likely to think it too convenient for the club to argue there is a distinct separation now that investment and support has petered out. Surely a parent company remains a parent company even when it can no longer sign the cheques?

Hearts may have been Vladimir Romanov's plaything but UBIG was the vehicle he used to provide the money. The hope is that a collapsed UBIG would result in Hearts being sold as a viable going concern. Senior, respected figures around the club privately speculate that in a year's time Hearts could be under new ownership – ideally Scottish – with a greatly reduced debt. Their optimism is admirable given the spectre of pain being inflicted on the club in the next few days or weeks, certainly if the SPL decides that UBIG and Hearts are inextricably connected and insolvency for the former means football sanctions for the latter. The most likely punishment would be that 15-point deduction to take effect from the start of next season.

If it comes to that, the 2013-14 SPL would have the near certainties of Celtic finishing top and Hearts finishing bottom. The introduction of a play-off – likely to be rubber-stamped at a separate SPL meeting today – could not be more timely. But that's for next season. In the meantime Hearts' SPL status is likely to be confirmed today along with Dundee's relegation. And that, for now, will amount to some relief for this distressed club.

Taken from the Herald