Which SPL clubs have had the most possession so far this season?

By Thom Watt 11 January 2013 17:10 GMT

In modern football it could certainly be said that possession is nine tenths of the law, particularly for anyone who has been engrained in the ways of Barcelona.

Their dominant position in European football has led no end of experts to pick apart just what makes them tick(i-taka), with their retention of the ball being a key feature.

As a result of this, supporters the world over have decided that they want their teams to play the same way. Amateur statisticians love to reel off the number of passes Xavi has made, or just how starved of the ball any of Barcelona's opponents were.

We've been slightly conned into thinking possession equals better teams. The stats aren't available, but you'd suspect the all-conquering Inter side of the 1960s didn't get quite as much of the ball as modern fans would have liked.

Instead, possession statistics tend to reveal how a team plays, rather than their effectiveness at playing that way. Teams with high possession figures keep the ball well, but as we'll see, that doesn't always translate into goals.

Average possession

The following details the average amount of possession that each SPL team has earned in the matches played so far this season.

Usually in these pieces we'd encourage anyone reading them to discount minor differences between numbers; a 0.1 of difference in shot accuracy or average fouls per game is such a small difference that it's not useful to draw conclusions. Here, the difference of 1-2% average possession can be highly significant.

Averaging this much more or less possession across 20-22 games means that a team is holding the ball significantly more than opponents, translating to many more minutes in possession. Again, this doesn't mean that a team is going to be scoring more, or even creating more, but it gives an indication how they play.

The numbers

1- Celtic - 58.76%
It's perhaps unsurprising that Celtic top the table when it comes to possession. They are, after all, top of the SPL and are expected to dominate every domestic match that they play. Teams who play Celtic will often go into games knowing they will have to surrender possession, and play on the counter attack. Indeed, in three of Celtic's four defeats this season they have had significantly more of the ball than their opponents: 59% against Kilmarnock, 61% against Inverness and 56% against Hibernian.

This season they have relied heavily on goals from crosses into the box, and the team is set up to win possession in the centre of the pitch, and hold it for overlapping runs from wingers - or more importantly this season - full backs. We can also see how much more dominant they've been in the last 10 matches, as opposed to their first 11, as they have held significantly more of the ball in the second set of fixtures. In half of those games Celtic held 60% or more possession, with a high of 80% against Ross County.

The one interesting anomaly is the matches against St Johnstone. Steve Lomas' side beat Celtic 2-1 at McDiarmid Park, and held them to a 1-1 draw at Celtic Park. Whether this was by design or necessity, St Johnstone had 51% of the ball in their home match, and 49% of the ball in their away game. Only Aberdeen, on the opening day of the season, had more of the ball in any match against Celtic. Perhaps this hints at a possible tactic for other SPL clubs to employ?

2- Hearts - 52.48%
A clear case for possession not necessarily equating better results, Hearts have held the majority of possession in all but six of their 21 matches so far this season. This has largely been down to John McGlynn's decision to play a 4-5-1 formation, with a packed midfield intent on holding the ball under pressure. In theory this makes sense, as a three-man central midfield is always more likely to be able to retain possession.

What is interesting is that in the switch back to a 4-4-2 they are not seeing a significant reduction in time on the ball; 52% against Kilmarnock, 51% against Aberdeen, 63% against St Mirren. In part, this is because when the ball is going to forward players it is now sticking, while the lone striker was finding it difficult to keep possession on his own. Equally, Hearts have a defence more than capable of playing the ball out from the back, which is a key feature of all teams that hold possession.

3- Aberdeen - 52.27%
Craig Brown has attempted to make Aberdeen significantly more stingy with possession, and this suggests he's part of the way there. Often using a 4-3-3 or 3-4-3 formation, Aberdeen have been able to hold the ball for longer in the centre of the pitch, before working it to their wingers.

What is particularly interesting with Aberdeen is how much they have missed their central midfield players that were lost to injury. The Aberdeen system relies on the midfield three - usually Gavin Rae, Isaac Osbourne and Stephen Hughes - holding the ball so they can work it wide. In the first half of the season, when all three were fit, Aberdeen averaged 54% possession, and only once were they out-fought for the lion's share of the ball, against Motherwell.

With injury to the latter two players, as well as Chris Clark, Ryan Jack and Rob Milsom, Aberdeen have been forced into playing Scott Vernon in midfield alongside teenagers Cammy Smith or Jamie Masson. Understandably, their possession stats have taken a hit as a result. In only five of the last 11 games have they held the ball more than their opponents.

4- St Johnstone - 50.68%
Although not generally seen as a "possession" side, St Johnstone have the capability to keep the ball better than most sides in the SPL. Again, having players in midfield comfortable with taking and playing a pass is a key factor, as are the players in the squad capable of running at defenders. Gregory Tade remains one of the most effective targetmen in the division, meaning long passes in his direction won't lose possession in the way they might with other clubs.

Again, St Johnstone appear to be one of the few sides in the SPL capable or willing (or perhaps both) to hold possession when taking on Celtic, holding two of the top three positions for ball retention when playing the Scottish Champions.

5- Dundee United - 50.52%
Dundee United are another side that have had a distinctly half-and-half season when it comes to holding onto the ball. In the first eleven games they only held onto the ball for longer than their opponents in two matches. Again, injuries played their part. Gary Mackay-Steven's running would have helped with ball retention, while Jon Daly's presence up front gave United a legitimate targetman. With an unsure defence, Daly was often used at centre-back, meaning that Peter Houston set up the side to play on the counter-attack, using the pace of Johnny Russell and Willo Flood, and the threat from full-back provided by Barry Douglas.

In the second 11 matches United have been a bit more fond of keeping the ball, almost to an extreme opposite. In only two games during this second half did the opposition hold the ball more than them. Indeed, one of those two games they surrendered more of the ball - against Aberdeen - featured Jon Daly at centre-back.

6- St Mirren - 50.22%
Danny Lennon has turned St Mirren from a stoic, stodgy side, into an open, attractive team in the last three years.

One of the key aspects of this transformation has been an emphasis on keeping the ball; playing short passes from goal-kicks, insisting on working the ball out of defence and keeping the ball on the ground. While Jim Goodwin anchors the midfield, Kenny McLean and Graham Carey are more than comfortable in possession. Teams which tend to have players capable of dribbling and running at defenders will also tend to have better possession stats.

The problem for St Mirren has been their defence, which has suffered so many injuries this term. Even in games where they have absolutely dominated possession (Aberdeen at home - 53%, Dundee United at home - 59%, Hibernian away - 53%) they haven't been able to keep opponents at bay. This is particularly obvious when you compare the first 11 games to the second, when injuries took their toll. In the first 11 matches St Mirren averaged just under 52% possession, which would put them fourth in the table, in the second half they averaged just over 49%, which would put them 10th.

7- Inverness Caledonian Thistle - 49.9%
Yet further proof that possession isn't everything, Inverness have managed to challenge at the top of the SPL table without dominating possession in the majority of their matches. Part of this can be explained by the fact Inverness remain a direct side, with Billy McKay the main striker, and Richie Foran and Andrew Shinnie threats from behind him. Aaron Doran has been the most potent provider of assists in the division, which shows how threatening they are from wide areas.

8- Motherwell - 49.86%
As with Inverness, Motherwell are competing for the European places without holding as much of the ball as many of their opponents. This is largely to do with the fact they are set up play on the counter attack.

In Chris Humphrey, Henrik Ojamaa and the now departed Jamie Murphy, Motherwell had the perfect weapons to break at pace against teams, particularly away from home. What is particularly interesting here is that the statistics for possession are almost identical whether Motherwell are at home or away, proving that it is the personnel and the attitude of other teams when they come to Fir Park that has caused such a troublesome home record.

9- Kilmarnock - 47.8%
While Kilmarnock have long been exponents of the beautiful game, they haven't managed to keep the ball as well as they have in previous seasons. Part of the reason is simply down to personnel; the likes of Craig Bryson and Alexei Eremenko had previously allowed them to keep the ball with a little more ease.

Equally, this season there has been a change in tactics in the forward positions. Paul Heffernan's presence usually allowed Kilmarnock to play the ball to the feet of their forwards and maintain an attacking threat. His injury meant that Kilmarnock were often playing with one man up front, which seems to have caused the same sorts of problems at it did for Hearts; the ball wasn't staying up front when it was played there.

10- Hibernian - 47.4%
Perhaps the most surprising statistic on this list is just how little of the ball Hibernian have had this season. Perhaps this is in part down to Pat Fenlon's successful attempts at shoring up the porous defence of last season, but in only four of the 22 games that Hibernian played so far this season have they dominated possession; two matches with Dundee, the loss against Ross County, and the 4-0 win at Motherwell.

This can be partially explained by the lack of natural wide players in the side. Most often Hibs have had Jorge Claros, Gary Deegan and Tom Taiwo in the middle, who are capable of holding the ball, but are more effective defensive players than going forward. The main offensive threats have come from Paul Cairney and Leigh Griffiths, both of whom tend to break at pace, and shoot from distance.

11- Ross County - 47%
Derek Adams' side will not have come into the SPL expecting to boss midfields, retain the ball and punish defences with death-by-one-thousand-cuts attack. It's not particularly surprising that they've seen less of the ball than almost any other side in the division.

However, their start in the SPL showed they were capable of playing with some intent. Their first 11 games averaged 49.6% possession, where they moved the ball around well and pressed teams, particularly at home. Since that point injuries and other teams understanding how they play have meant they get less of the ball than before. In only two of the last 11 games did they have the majority of possession, and ceded 80% of the ball to Celtic in the 4-0 defeat.

12- Dundee - 43.19%
Dundee's position at the bottom of the possession table is hardly surprising. They are bottom of the SPL table, and have struggled throughout the season. In the majority of the games this season they will have been expecting a defensive battle, and have obviously set themselves up to play without the ball for most of the game.

On occasion this attitude has actually served them quite well. They had just 38% of the ball in the 3-1 win over Hibernian, 28% of possession in the 1-1 draw with Motherwell and 49% in the 1-0 win over Hearts. Still, it's hard to draw conclusions that this is more or less effective a tactic than a more expansive game, given Dundee have had territorial advantage in so few games this year.