Sense of hope restored in group of hard knocks

Glenn Gibbons:
IN THE way that low-grade horse races tend to be ultra-competitive primarily because the runners are all of similarly moderate ability, Scotland's World Cup qualifying group promises to be a nightmare for anyone seeking to profit from predicting the outcome of matches.
With the campaign less than a week old, George Burley's conviction that the contest for a place in the top two will be relentlessly attritional, with results fluctuating wildly, is already becoming uncomfortably prophetic. Even this early, four of the five countries in Group 9 have dropped points, while Holland, the exception, have played only one game.

Reports of a slightly fortunate 2-1 victory for the Dutch in Macedonia on Wednesday night suggest that even the odds-on favourites to win the section and claim automatic qualification for South Africa in 2010 have yet to demonstrate conclusively that they are emphatically superior to the others.

Scotland's creditable 2-1 win over Iceland in Reykjavik the other night, following the latter's 2-2 draw with Norway in Oslo four days earlier and the Scots' own defeat in Skopje the same day, is simply confirmation of the likelihood of a wearing, sometimes exhilarating and sometimes frustrating series of assignments through the coming months.

Just as the reversal in Skopje could not reasonably be heard as the death knell for the Scots' prospects of retaining an interest in the competition, the resurrection in Reykjavik cannot not be acclaimed as evidence that they are now on a downhill run all the way to their first major finals in 12 years.

What Burley's players provided at the Laugardalsvollur on Wednesday was much-needed encouragement, with a performance that made a gratifying contrast with the one they had given last Saturday. Where there had been lifelessness and uncertainty, there was energy, commitment and a high tempo, hinting that the widespread condemnation of their previous effort had had a galvanising effect.

This was confirmed by Gary Naysmith, the left-back whose unusually candid comments yesterday amounted almost to a breach of the players' code of omerta, by which nothing is said in public that could give anyone the idea that the team members themselves might share the dread of the supporters.

"We all went into the game knowing it was a must-win," said Naysmith. "Yes, if we had taken a draw I'd be standing here now with the other players trying to kid you on that it wasn't a bad result. But the bottom line is a draw would not have been good enough. We could not have gone forward from here, with just one point from six in our opening two matches.

"What we have done is out ourselves in the mix, but the pressure will be there again when we play Norway at home next month, because it will be exactly the same situation – we'll have to win it. If we get a draw or a defeat, we'll be sitting with four points, or even three, out of nine and that won't be good enough either."

Having rediscovered the spirit that had been a feature of many of their performances in the Euro 2008 qualifying, the Scots also acquired a new sense of direction and purpose, attributable to a change of personnel and tactics by Burley that brought a switch of emphasis.

Dispensing with a defensive midfield player (Paul Hartley) and drafting two wide players, Shaun Maloney and Kris Commons, in a formation that could quickly re-shape itself from a 4-5-1 to a 4-3-3 as circumstances dictated, Burley demonstrated a boldness that would do no harm to his reputation as a strategist.

Given Iceland's rising confidence after Norway and the number of players they now have at top-level clubs – four in England, one in Serie A and Gudjohnsen at Barcelona – this was a more meritorious victory than the one in which Naysmith participated at the same venue six years ago. It does not necessarily, however, indicate the kind of soaring improvement that will make the passage to South Africa a formality.

As Naysmith stressed, the visit of Norway to Hampden Park next month will revive the kind of difficulties that had to be overcome this week, each step along a treacherous route a potential pitfall. One striking difference between the squad then and the one which travelled to Reykjavik, however, is likely to be a restored self-belief, following the battering it had suffered in Macedonia.

Burley has also emphasised his readiness to alter his personnel and his tactics to suit each occasion and, by the time of Norway's visit, he may have reached the conclusion that reversion to a seemingly more cautious approach will be in order. And, of course, nothing can be finalised until he has ascertained the most important element of all, the availability of players.

Whatever else may be said of the events in Reykjavik, the most pressing need of all was fulfilled, the renewal of a sense of hope, and even optimism, that appeared to have withered beyond recovery in the heat of Skopje just six days ago.

Taken from the Scotsman