All signs point to green half of Glasgow

Dan Roebuck
Friday July 28, 2006
The Guardian

If the bookmakers' prices for the Scottish Premierleague are anything to go by, the race for the title is set to be the closest for some time, with three teams having worthy claims on finishing in top spot come May. The seat of power in the Scottish game is still very much in Glasgow, with Celtic again favourites at even money (SkyBet) and Rangers generally 5-4 shots - those odds representing over 95% of the book.

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The emergence of Heart of Midlothian, however, who are as short as 6-1 with a handful of layers but who can be backed at 9-1 generally, has forced the bookmakers into pricing up a market without the "big three" - Celtic, Rangers and Hearts - whereas in previous seasons the "betting without" market would simply have been minus the Old Firm. Twelve months ago layers were offering 7-1 about Hearts winning the SPL without Celtic and Rangers and 500-1 to win the title.

Prices like those are no longer available for the Tynecastle club and with the potential added pressure of playing in the Champions League group stages - should they qualify - there seems little value in backing Valdas Ivanauskas' side. And remember, it is unlikely that Hearts will get off to as good a start as they did last season when they won their first eight league games. Their inactivity in the transfer market and injury to their star midfielder Paul Hartley could also be an early hindrance. Those convinced Hearts can go close are directed to the Ladbrokes handicap market, where they are given a 14-point start and can be backed at 8-1.

So which of the Old Firm are the value to win the title? Player for player you have to say Celtic have the better squad and, come kick-off tomorrow, it would not be surprising if the evens offered by SkyBet (the only firm not to go odds-on about the champions) had disappeared. The signing of Jiri Jarosik from Chelsea is perhaps the most eye-catching but the addition of the Hibernian duo of Derek Riordan (12-1 with Ladbrokes to end as the league's top scorer) and Gary Caldwell, plus Kenny Miller (10-1 with Hill's to be top scorer) also bodes well for Bhoys backers.

Pre-season results have been mixed for Celtic but after a slow start and a hugely disappointing European exit last term, Gordon Strachan turned things around to win the league by 17 points. A year on and the former Scotland international will know the division even better, something that cannot be said of his opposite number at Ibrox, Paul Le Guen.

The former Lyon coach comes with a big reputation, after winning a wealth of domestic honours for his former employers. But for a team that finished third in 2006 and were well off the pace for much of it, Rangers should not be as short as 5-4. Libor Sionko, Karl Svensson and Jeremy Clement are interesting signings but if Kris Boyd (2-1 with Totesport to be top SPL goalscorer) has a poor season then goals may prove hard to come by.

Those looking for a top goalscorer bet could do worse than to back Maciej Zurawski, a 10-1 chance with Hill's (Blue Square go just 5-1). The Poland striker has had a season to acclimatise to life in the Scottish top flight and after bagging 16 goals in 22 starts last term can be expected to help himself to more this term. In each of his previous four seasons in his homeland he reached the 20-goal mark.

In the betting without the "big three", Kilmarnock are worth an interest at 5-1 with Stan James. Jim Jeffries' side only just missed out on fourth place last season and have managed to keep hold of their best players including the 19-year-old Steven Naismith, who flourished in the second half of last season.

Taken from the Guardian/Observer